Special Features

Hurricane Milton is centered near 22.1N 92.6W at 07/0900 UTC or 170 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ESE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas have increased rapidly to around 28 ft. An eye has been apparent with numerous moderate to strong convection noted within 120 of the the center of Milton, except within 150 nm in the NE quadrant. An eastward to east- southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tue and Wed. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tue, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wed. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane later today. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tue through Wed night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 15.6N 40.4W at 07/0900 UTC or 930 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 22 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 45 nm in the NE semicircle and 75 nm in the SW semicircle, with scattered moderate convection also present between 60 nm and 180 nm in the N quadrant of Leslie. Leslie is moving toward the northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Fri. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence soon and continue through the week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Leslie at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28.5W, south of 18N, moving slowly west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the tropical wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends westward to 11N24W. No ITCZ is analyzed in the Atlantic basin, however a surface trough extends from 13N52W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 14W and 23W. Similar convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 48W and 54W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about Hurricane Milton.

A complex weather pattern, typical for the transition months, has developed over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Milton is over the western half of the Gulf while low pressure of 1007 mb is in the eastern Gulf near 26N85W per recent satellite imagery. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to near gale force NE to E winds north of the low as well as north of a stationary front which extends from just south of Tampa Bay, Florida through the low to 25N92.5W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 ft or less are south of the front and east of Milton. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 135 nm in the SE quadrant of the low, with similar convection noted out ahead over the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, Milton will move to 21.9N 91.3W this afternoon, 22.2N 89.4W Tue morning, 23.1N 87.5W Tue afternoon, 24.7N 85.7W Wed morning, 26.4N 83.9W Wed afternoon, and inland to 28.1N 81.7W Thu morning. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic at 30.0N 75.5W early Fri. Meanwhile, 1007 mb low pressure is near 26.5N85.5W along a stationary front stretching from near Tampa Bay, Florida through the low to 24N91W. Fresh to near gale force winds and building seas are north of the front. The low and front will slowly shift east-southeastward through Tue. Conditions should improve across the basin by the end of the week.

Caribbean Sea

A diffluent pattern aloft persists over the NW Caribbean while an upper-level trough extends from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. This upper-level pattern is helping to induce convection over western Cuba northward. Convection is mainly limited across the remainder of the basin. A weak pressure pattern at the surface due to distant Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico disrupting the typical Atlantic ridging is resulting in fairly benign conditions across the Caribbean basin with light and variable winds. Seas are mainly 2 ft or less west of 74W, and 2 to 3 ft east of 74W except higher in and near Atlantic passages due to decaying long-period swells previously generated by Kirk.

For the forecast, Milton will move to 21.9N 91.3W this afternoon, 22.2N 89.4W Tue morning, 23.1N 87.5W Tue afternoon, 24.7N 85.7W Wed morning, 26.4N 83.9W Wed afternoon, and inland to 28.1N 81.7W Thu morning. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic at 30.0N 75.5W early Fri. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas over most of the NW Caribbean, including waters south of Cuba to near 19N and the Yucatan Channel along with building seas from late tonight through Wed night. Meanwhile, long-period NE swells in the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages from distant Hurricane Kirk will subside today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean midweek due to an incoming tropical wave, spreading to the central Caribbean at the end of the week, with moderate winds also developing ahead of the tropical wave by mid-week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Leslie, as well as on Hurricane Milton which may impact the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida by mid-week.

Hurricane Kirk is transitioning to an extratropical cyclone well north of the area near 40.0N and associated winds south of 31N have diminished. However, lingering and decaying swells are still impacting waters north of 22N and east of the Bahamas to 35W or so with life-threatening rip currents still possible at coastal locations. Please consult your local meteorological agency for any details on such.

A weak low is analyzed near 31N58W as depicted on earlier satellite derived wind data. Winds are moderate to fresh on the SE semicircle between 50W and 60W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted north of 29N east of the low to 53W. Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters outside of Kirk and Leslie. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate away from the tropical systems, locally fresh offshore southern Morocco. As for seas, large swell associated with Kirk dominate most of the waters north of 18N and east of the Bahamas to 40W. Seas are in general 4 to 7 ft away from Kirk and Leslie.

For the forecast west of 55W, Milton will move to 21.9N 91.3W this afternoon, 22.2N 89.4W Tue morning, 23.1N 87.5W Tue afternoon, 24.7N 85.7W Wed morning, 26.4N 83.9W Wed afternoon, and inland to 28.1N 81.7W Thu morning. Milton will weaken as an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic at 30.0N 75.5W early Fri. Expect impacts in the form of increasing winds and building seas in advance of Milton over waters east of Florida beginning late Tue. Otherwise, long period NE to E swells associated with distant Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the waters E of the Bahamas through today. Looking ahead, farther E, swells associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, may impact the waters E of 60W by midweek.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky